Adel Verpflichtet, By Hook or By Crook, Hoity Toity
2008 PBEM Championship Match
Series Replay
By John R. Pack, GM

In 2003 I wrote an article examining the value of the different moves and outcomes in Adel Verpflichtet which was published in The Boardgamer.  I've posted an updated version of that article and the series replay that went with it here.  However, additional experience since I wrote that article suggests some modifications of the scoring system where the detective is concerned.  I've simplified the charts as well as indicated the changes in bold on the charts that follow:

Auctionhouse Results

Castle Results

As before, a score of 10 represents a perfect turn while a score of 0 (or less) is a wasted turn (or worse).  Scores below zero (and below the range shown) are possible; scores above the range shown for the outcome are not (unless a player without a thief is getting one out of jail).

There are three changes -- all of which affect the detective scoring.  The first reduces the base score to 2.  The reasoning here is simple -- the advancement leader doesn't gain much by catching a thief.  The second change is that a thief-less opponent now only adds one to the score.  Often that score also comes with a point for putting an opponent's thief in jail to begin with -- for a total of two points.  That's reasonable, but three points for catching a thief was too much.  Finally, every space advanced past the first (which is included in the base score) is worth two points instead of one.  This reflects the high value of the detective to players who are behind and trying to catch up.  Of course, players in the lead will seldom play thieves (if they've read my article) for this very reason.

This series replay analyzes a game played for the 2008 Play-by-Email Championship which ended in June 2009.  Tom DeMarco (the World Boardgaming Championships Gamemaster), Alex Bove, Keith Layton, Curt Collins, and I played a memorable game.  The caliber of the players was very high.  Not only did each player have to perform well in the seven rounds of games that led up to the championship match, but among this group are four world championships and the reigning Caesar of the World Boardgaming Championships.  The game was enjoyable and hard-fought, and I think the ending was dramatic.

To facilitate commentary on each turn, I'll report each player's move, the result, and the score (using the modified scoring system which was just presented).  After the moves, any player banter is included to help readers enjoy the flavor of the game.  Then I'll summarize the situation for all of the players by showing the advancement, cumulative score, and assets of each player at the end of the turn.  Then I'll include notes I wrote during the game (if any).  Finally, I’ll offer a few comments explaining interesting aspects of the turn and applications of the strategies contained in the article.  I won’t use my perfect information about the game at this point or hindsight to second-guess moves – after all, except for the player whose move worked perfectly, every player could always have made a better move.  I'll try to examine individual moves using only information that would have been available to that player before he selected his move.

At the end of the game, I’ll summarize some additional information and offer some additional commentary.  The other finalists have also been invited to comment, and you'll find their comments at the end of the article.

The colors in the game are the SpielByWeb Hoity Toity colors -- which means that Green and Yellow are the opposite of what you'd expect if you've mostly played the Alea or Avalon Hill Adel Verpflichtet or By Hook or By Crook versions.

Legend

The cards shown in bold in each set in the status box indicate what has been made public information either through purchase, theft, or exhibit.  Note that I don't show which thief was played at the Auctionhouse -- since it doesn't matter.

Starting Positions

Comments (Post-Game): Alex and Keith start without sets.  Alex can add an A, B, D, E, or F to get a set, however; so he should have an easy time securing an exhibit in the early going.  Keith, on the other hand, really needs an E to finish a set but can get by with an F.  With no E in the Auctionhouse to start with, Keith could be without a set for several turns.

I start with a three-card set which is very vulnerable to thieves.  Adding a B would connect all of my cards.  Tom starts with a four-card set that is also vulnerable to thieves but can add new cards easily.  Curt starts with the strongest set -- all four cards connect with a pair of C's in the middle that offer flexibility plus thief-proofing possibilities.  Tom can thief-proof with the addition of a B or a C.  Curt can do likewise with a B, C, or D.

Turn 1

Tom:  Good luck to all.

Notes (written during play): Tom will be a thief at the Auctionhouse. He likes to collect a few big checks at the start.  I go with a thief at the Castle since an examination of the results of Curt's semi-finals suggests he might be a sprinter.  Curt does the same.  Does he have a set?

Comments: With the rest of us committed to banditry, Alex gets a jump on us by purchasing an item with his third-tier check that completes an exhibit.  Alex makes a good check selection -- since Tom was unlikely to play a check and Keith's $15,000 would beat anything except his largest.  Everyone else wastes a turn.  With the largest of the second-tier checks among those at the castle, Keith might have figured that the $15,000 check would be a winner, but what he really wants is an E.  Keith wants F's too and is fortunate when a second F shows up, since it may make the Auctionhouse an easy win for him next turn.

Turn 2

Notes: Alex has a reputation as a conservative player. That suggests he might be a detective rather than risk a thief in jail or the loss of a card. So I'll try an exhibit.  The problem is that Alex is a conservative, massive-set builder -- not a conservative advancer.

Comments: Three head to the Auctionhouse despite the double F's.  Tom isn't interested in F's; Curt is only slightly interested; both play thieves.  Keith wins with his largest check.  Had he guessed that the F's would attract very little interest, Keith might have been able to win with a lower bid.  Nonetheless, Keith completes an exhibit and gains exhibiting options.

In the castle, I take a foolish risk and exhibit.  If my collection were such that I could lose an item and still have three cards in an exhibit, this would have been a great time to show the cards.  However, given that the loss of one card means no exhibit and risks putting me in a situation where I need two specific letters, the move is a mistake.  I pay the price for my folly as Alex builds his set -- finishing a second exhibit and coming closer to linking the ends of his collection.  Most likely the other players realize that I have no set at this point.  The loss of options means my moves will be more transparent over the next few turns.

The points -- normally 7+ for an exhibit -- show the devastating consequences.  I drop from a three-card exhibit to zero.  I score the same as Curt -- who prevented Tom from picking up the $22,000 check (and thereby has a better chance to win with his $21,000 check on future turns).

Turn 3

Comments: Alex gets a free exhibit and a near-perfect turn.  The only benefit to the rest of us is that we now have some idea what his set looks like.

In the Auctionhouse, Tom and Curt stay consistent with thieves.  I figure no one will play their high check (of those who still have them) and go with my second-tier check.  My $17,000 check can beat all but Tom and Curt's largest checks.  My biggest set now has two cards.  Impressive!  Keith tries to get an item on the cheap -- but it's less likely now that there are two different letters available.

Turn 4

Comments: Alex gets another free exhibit and scores a perfect turn.  The rest of us are already in danger of being left behind.  In the Auctionhouse, I figure that a big check both of the last two turns will finally persuade Tom or Curt to spend their largest checks in an attempt to accomplish something useful.  No, they both stick with thieves.  Unfortunately, I join them in wasting my turn too.  Keith spends his second-tier check and thief-proofs his set.  Unbeknownst to all of us, the largest set held by anyone is just four cards!

Turn 5

Notes: Keith could have showed us an F we already knew about instead of an additional one we didn't.  No need to let us know he had four of them just yet.

Comments: Alex heads to the Auctionhouse as a C becomes available -- and, with it, the opportunity to connect both halves of his collection.  After four turns of unprofitably picking a thief at the Auctionhouse, Tom goes with the $12,000 check.  It's a good choice if he doesn't absolutely have to win the item (by playing the largest check) and always better than the $13,000.  Curt sticks with a thief.  If he'd gone with the $16,000 check, he'd have won in all cases that didn't draw one of the two biggest checks in the game.  Instead, Alex guesses their intentions and selects the perfect check -- $14,000 -- and scores the C needed to join his collection's halves.  Interestingly, if Curt and Tom weren't so keen on stealing checks, Alex might have felt this card was worth his $23,000 check.

At the Castle, I hope Keith isn't aware that I have no exhibit, hope he plays a thief, and therefore play a detective.  That's a mistake.  All of the players are probably aware that I have no set and, therefore, will not play a thief against me.  More likely, in fact, are attempts to put my thieves in jail!  However, Keith avoids the Detectives' Convention by exhibiting and moving ahead.  Keith shows two Fs we didn't know about before -- making it highly likely that his set contains only four cards.

Turn 6

Notes: Curt's check is better than all but my and Tom's best checks.

Comments: I head to the Auctionhouse with the intent of finally getting an exhibit again.  I have little fear of losing against the Auctionhouse gang (Curt and Tom).  Tom goes back to thieving.  After five turns as a thief, Curt plays his $14,000 check -- an excellent move since only Tom's $24,000 and my $20,000 check can beat it.  However, in this case, it's not good enough because I am willing to play my $20,000 check to get an exhibit and avoid wasting a turn.  After six turns, both Tom and Curt have netted just one check each -- and no items or spaces.  That's a disastrous start.  Good thing for both of them that they started with four-card sets!

At the castle, both Alex and Keith exhibit.  Both can afford the risk of losing one card (Keith more so than Alex).  Alex shows all of his cards -- even though it was unlikely Keith could beat the five cards Alex had previously shown.  Alex takes no chances and reaches the first corner.  It's another near-perfect turn for Alex.  Keith does well by scoring some advancement; I tend to consider any turn when I advance to be a success.  However, now that Alex has joined his halves, gone are the turns when four cards was the biggest set.

Turn 7

Comments: The Auctionhouse finally pays off for Tom -- now that everyone else has left for the castle.  Tom picks up the C -- thief-proofing one end of his set and giving him greater flexibility.

With four players at the castle for the first time, most reach for the safety of a detective -- since no one can afford multiple losses.  Keith is the guest speaker at the detectives convention -- giving big movement to me and Curt.  Curt scores a near-perfect turn.  It's amazing that this is the first thief caught in seven turns.

A D finally shows up at the Auctionhouse.  However, my two remaining checks are so low that I still won't leave the castle.

Turn 8

Alex:  Oops.
John:  I recognize this Pipe... Hmmmm....

Notes: Given Curt's reluctance to play big checks and pre-disposition to play thieves, I wonder if Tom might have been safe going with the $20,000 check?

Comments: The Auctionhouse gang is back.  However, Tom is apparently done wasting turns and buys the D with the big $24,000 check.  Curt returns to his criminal ways and pads his bank account.  Given that the new D is not critical to Tom's set (other than giving a bit of flexibility while maintaining the thief-proof of his set), I think Tom should have risked a smaller check.  The $20,000 would have won against all but Curt's $21,000 check.  Tom comes out of the turn with the best collection.  Curt has so many checks that I doubt he'll have the chance to spend them all before the game is over; however, his options include enough good checks now (including the top check) that his Auctionhouse turns from here on should be very productive.

In the castle, Alex exhibits and shoots past the first Purple slow zone -- threatening a quick finish to the game.  However, both Keith and I turn to lives of crime and hammer Alex's awesome set.  Alex shows the DEE end of his collection.  The weakness of his set is the singular middle cards (B, C, and D).  Keith takes an E to finally connect his D to his large F collection.  This is good news for me -- because the D finally connects all the pieces of my collection; however, my set is even more fragile than Alex's.  It's a bit ironic that it's the same D Alex stole from me earlier.  When selecting my thief, I had the option to go first (picking Thief 11) or last (picking Thief 2).  Since I regarded the odds of a detective as higher than those for multiple thieves with an exhibitor, I decided to go with the lower thief.  Fortunately for me, I ended up with the same item I'd have selected anyway.

Alex rockets towards the second corner while the rest of his are a full edge behind (or worse).  I typically consider any player further behind than one edge of the board (10 spaces) to be hopelessly behind -- that includes Tom and Curt at the moment and almost Keith and me as well.

This turn also marks a turning point in this game -- as this is the first turn that wasn't wasted by any players.  The number of wasted turns has been very high.

Turn 9

Keith:  So this is how it feels to get two items stolen. I feel your pain Alex.

Notes: I'm almost surprised that Curt didn't play a thief at the Auctionhouse…  By my usual estimates, Curt and Tom are already too far behind to have a chance at winning -- being more than an edge of the board behind.  Curt has spent all but one turn in the Auctionhouse thus far -- and has just barely spent his first check.

Comments: For the second time in the game, the Auctionhouse has but a single taker.  Curt spends the smallest of his six checks.  He thief-proofs his exhibit.  Of course, thief-proofing is irrelevant unless one actually exhibits one's collection.  Nonetheless, it's worth noting that with the addition of a single card to Curt's starting exhibit he now has the third best set and is only one card away from the leaders.

Keith does exhibit his collection, much to his dismay.  Tom and Alex help themselves.  Of course, because Keith's exhibit is concentrated at the far end in F's, neither Tom nor Alex increase the size of their own current exhibits through their thievery.  I finally fill a few jail cells and advance as many spaces as Keith for a far less-painful price.  Alex could have chosen his smaller thief in order to get out of prison earlier, but his larger thief ensured he'd get to pick before Tom.  Given that Alex would have preferred to steal from Tom, however, I suspect he should have gone with the lower thief (since both of his thieves were lower than Keith's remaining thief).

Turn 10

John:  I have to admit I didn't see that happening... Good move, Tom!

Notes: Tom will be a detective to try to catch up. Will Alex be foolish enough to play a thief?  Sprinters have to be sparing with thieves to keep detectives from moving forward a lot.

Comments: I expect Tom to play a detective while Alex exhibits.  I exhibit in an attempt to slow Alex down.  This works even better than I'd hoped when Tom also exhibits such that Alex gets nothing for his efforts -- his first wasted turn (and the most unusual way to waste a move).  The oldest card (A1468) wins the 6-card tie for Tom and proves he holds the best exhibit over-all.  A lot of information is revealed to the other players!

Tom finally gets out of the starting space -- and almost catches Curt who is also lagging far behind.  I reach the first corner and narrow Alex's lead enough that he can't simply charge forward to victory any more.  In fact, this type of turn is the sprinter's worst nightmare.  OK, not worst nightmare, just second worst -- the worst is when one's exhibit doesn't advance and there's a thief too.

Keith wastes a turn at the Auctionhouse trying to compete with checkmeister Curt (four of whose five checks are better than anything Keith has).  This is probably an instance where Keith should have stolen Curt's check.  Curt wisely plays the smallest check that will guarantee his winning the bid and picking up the fourth oldest card in the game.  The downside of picking up an F is that Curt's collection is no longer thief-proofed on that end of his set.

Turn 11

Comments: Keith learns his lesson at the Auctionhouse and uses a thief this time.  Of course, perhaps the lesson should have been to avoid the Auctionhouse!  Curt, once again, uses the check which is just barely better than anything Keith has (his third-place check).  Curt really thief-proofs the C-end of his collection.  Keith gets the check, but it won't be of much use against anyone who's still willing to go to the Auctionhouse (Tom, Alex, and Curt).  Even without peeking at my notes, I'd be willing to bet that Keith finishes the game with this check in hand (since he'll spend the lower checks if he's alone and won't be able to spend this one against the players with larger checks).  With Curt purchasing a D, F, and C over these three last turns, I suspect this is the point when most of the players guessed that Curt had a connected set.

At the Castle, Alex proves that consistency is the friend of the sprinter -- as he charges ahead and rounds the second corner while Tom and I chicken out and provide Alex lots of protection.  In fifth place, Tom's decision makes sense -- but I should have been willing to risk a thief or chosen an exhibit.  With a thief in the first jail cell -- a long way from parole -- and the rest of us so far back, it was extremely unlikely that a player of Alex's caliber would play a thief.

Turn 12

Alex:  Wow!
Tom:  Ouch! Ouch! Ouch! I shoulda played an exhibit last turn and detected this turn.
Tom:  Well, now someone else will have to try and stop Alex.  I'm pretty much out of it now.
John:  Hmmmm... What should I steal?
Alex:  :-)

Comments: Keith is happy at the Auctionhouse this turn as he finds himself alone.  The E he purchases bullet-proofs his set

At the castle, I figure Alex will sprint forward again -- but I think he's running low enough on connected cards that I figure the best way to stop his sprint is to rob him blind.  Apparently, Alex realized his vulnerability and choose a thief to improve his set -- even with the major risk of allowing detectives to make major gains.  Curt, bent on having the best set, does likewise.  Tom shows up as the exhibiting guest speaker at our thieves' convention.  Tom moves out of last place finally, but at the cost of his once-best exhibit.  In fact, after three losses Tom has no exhibit at all.  That's why the points are negative.

Tom chooses an exhibit that will leave him with the oldest A and with a C and a D -- giving him some hope of being able to reconnect the whole set in the future.  A CDD exhibit would have left him with an three card set but have made it harder to ever connect to the F in the future.

Alex gets just the card he needs to connect his entire collection.  He's fully recovered from the earlier thefts.  It's worth noting that Alex has still only wasted a single turn.  He's in fantastic shape with an 8-space lead and the second-best set.  Curt extends his set with a B to ensure he can connect with an A if he ever gets one.  I take the leftovers -- a C.  It doesn't help me against thieves unless I can secure another B.  With no old cards, my set is in third place despite its size.  With so many players at the castle, this might have been a good turn to have risked my better thief.

Turn 13

John:  We've had a lot of triple exhibits already -- and lots of multiple thefts too. Apparently, great minds think alike...

Notes: In a tough spot -- I should exhibit, but I'm here with the one person who has never exhibited and, despite being in last place, is still more concerned with building his set size.  Tom plays it perfectly; Alex, inexplicably, wastes his turn.  Only one hidden card left in the game -- presumably an A or B in Keith's hand.  Curt's set is very potent; he should run and try to inhibit Alex's advancement.

Comments: Alex heads to the Auctionhouse.  I presume his intention is to bullet-proof by acquiring the B.  I'm surprised when he plays his low check and allows Tom to make the purchase.  With the largest check and no reason to believe he'll be back at the Auctionhouse in the future, Alex shouldn't care whether Tom steals the $23,000 check.  Tom plays it perfectly by using his smallest check that will win in all cases where Alex doesn't use his $23,000 check.

Without Alex at the castle, the rest of us have a vacation turn so-to-speak.  Closing the gap is on all of our minds, so we all choose to exhibit for the four-space reward.  Curt might have been lured into playing a detective for a potential five-space pickup, but he correctly perceives the low chance of catching a thief when the second and third place players are so far behind.  We all show everything we can -- but that leaves Keith out in the cold.  Curt scores his first perfect turn and moves into a tie for third-place (but still a whole board edge behind).  I'm always happy to move forward.

Interestingly, since my entire set had been displayed before, Curt could have safely withheld one of his original C's or D and kept the rest of us a little bit more in the dark as to the potency of his exhibit.

Turn 14

Alex:  Yes!
John:  The obvious thing is to think "I wish I'd played an exhibit," but just to make the game closer I even wish I'd played a thief!
Alex:  You know, for all my luck so far, this is not a runaway. It's a long way to the table, my friends.

Notes: With the lowest checks left in the game, it'll be a LONG time before I go back to the Auctionhouse!

Comments: Alex is the lone player in the Auctionhouse this time around -- letting him use the low check he was keen to spend last turn.  Alex reduces the value of his purchase by taking the A rather than bullet-proofing with the B (which is even the older card this time).  With a set that can take a hit, Alex should press forward and try to win at this point.  If he waits too long the rest of us will get into the action.

The rest of us are scared of thieves and try to get some cheap advancement in, so we play detectives and all waste the turn.  This is a turn we could ill afford to waste while so far behind.  The problem, of course, is that all of our sets (except Curt's) are too vulnerable to thieves, so we all choose to play it safe.  Safe and sorry in this case.

Turn 15

Alex:  Well, if you're going to keep stealing, I'm going to keep scoring points. Geez.
Curt:  That sealed it. Nice win Alex, I'll get you back at WBC...
Alex:  Hey, I just want some laurels for the Caesar defense. :-)
John:  Well, we certainly don't stand a chance as long as Alex is the only one moving, that's for certain!

Comments: Alex charges ahead -- just as he should.  His points are low for the turn as a result of being robbed twice.  But he's still in great shape with a six-card set.  Alex moves into the 4/2 space just before the last 2/1; he should try to jump over it and end the game quickly.

Keith and I rob Alex -- each picking up an A for our efforts.  The A is worthless to Keith.  Worse, for Keith, is that he no longer has any thieves at all -- making this turn worse than wasted for Keith.  Keith will be desperate to pick up a C and finally connect his collection.  The A that I steal adds to my set but not in any way that gives me security.  This time picking the low thief pays off for me -- the item is no worse and my thief will get out on parole sooner.

Tom scores his first perfect turn by putting my and Keith's thieves in jail and advancing five spaces.  Tom's tied for second-place -- a whole edge of the board behind Alex.  Tom fills the jail cells for the first time -- very late in the game.

Curt pads his set at the Auctionhouse.  I'll give Curt credit; he's spent more of his one-time six checks than I thought he'd be able to.

Turn 16

John:  I'd hoped Alex would be the one being robbed by two thieves this turn, but it's the other way around...

Notes: My hope this turn was that Alex would get robbed twice. Instead, he picks up two items. That's bad news for the rest of us.  Can we hold Alex back long enough?

Comments: This is the first turn we all head to the castle.  Interestingly, the two players whose sets are not big enough to beat Alex's collection choose to exhibit.  Alex, instead of forging on ahead pulls out a bandit as do I.

Tom and Keith advance; however, it costs them dearly.  Tom is left exhibit-less while Keith is reduced to the bare minimum and loses all hope of connecting the ends of his collection.  Alex and I pick up nice bullet-proofing for our sets but each have our second thief sent to prison and lose the option to play another thief until one gets out on parole.  Worse, that means our opponents have thieves to spare as theirs get out of jail!  Keith gets the option to play thieves back after being without it for just one turn.  Having my better thief available this turn proves very beneficial -- allowing me to fill in just the right chinks in my set.

Curt, who one would expect to play a detective in order to take advantage of being in last place, does so and scores his second perfect turn (the first player to have a second such turn).  With the three trailing players advancing, the back end of the race really tightens up.  It looks like quite a race for second-place.  I have dawdled long enough that everyone has caught up with me.  Everyone is also now within a board-edge of the leader.

Turn 17

Comments: I can display up to five cards without fear of having my set broken (AABCD). We all need to ensure that Alex doesn't advance 4 spaces, so I exhibit.  I advance four spaces for my effort but lose the bullet-proofing from my set.  Given the dire need for items by Tom and Keith, I should have been able to see their thieves coming and taken advantage of an easier way to move up four spaces.  But I was more interested in keeping Alex from jumping over the 2/1 space.

Tom collects a B from me to re-establish a minimal set.  Keith steals an A -- which gives him a second small exhibit but does nothing to connect his whole collection.  He once again loses the ability to play a thief.

Curt zooms forward with another detective.  Curt's points don't zoom up as much this turn as last because two thief-less opponents, Alex and I, get criminals out of jail as a result.  I suspect Alex played a detective with that very result in mind.  However, for Alex this is, in my opinion, a huge mistake.  His ability to capitalize on his long lead depends on doing so quickly.  Moving forward just one space puts him in the 2/1 dead zone where exhibitors don't gain much -- and the distant players using detectives do.

Turn 18

John:  We all want to thank you, Curt, for that last turn. We're all still too far behind, but at least it's not quite as far...
Curt:  Someone has to thief every turn in case Alex exhibits.
Tom:  Someone has to exhibit every turn in case Alex exhibits.
Alex:  Someone has to thief every turn in case I exhibit.
Alex:  Or someone could steal from the player who has the most items. You know, the one who is now also very close to winning.

Notes: Since Alex can only move two spaces maximum this turn, my plan is to be a detective -- to safely move up a few more spaces.  Alex's move into the 2/1 space is a crucial error that may allow everyone else to catch up. If Alex had a lot of checks, however, it'd make sense.

Comments: Apparently, everyone but Curt has the same idea as I do -- and we all move forward with our detectives.  Keith wins the turn as he gets the ability to use a thief back.  In fact, it's Keith's first perfect turn (even better than perfect, for that matter).  No one has two thieves in jails any more.  Alex's move makes it possible for him to get out of the dead zone with another detective.  But he's no longer the eight spaces ahead needed to win without a large set.  He may have waited too long already.

Turn 19

John:  There's a turn we can all write home about...
Alex:  Awesome.

Notes: We all waste a turn at a key juncture that could have changed the result of the game for many of us.

Comments: Last turn worked so nicely for everyone that Curt turns detective too.  Somehow it doesn't work out as well...  No one wants to risk major losses to bandits for a mere two spaces or risk getting their second thief put in the slammer...

Turn 20

Keith:  I figured one police convention was enough for me.
John:  Thanks for being our guest speaker, Keith -- it made this detective's convention much better than the last!

Notes: Alas, the reasons for picking a detective are still as strong as they were last turn. Hopefully, Alex will turn thief.

Comments: Keith reads the conservative mood of the table well and pulls off a supremely-guarded exhibit.  He moves from tied-for-last up to tied-for-second -- with just two spaces.  Alex wastes another turn as his once-enormous lead dwindles.  Tom, Curt, and I blow two critical turns in a row.

Turn 21

Keith:  That time I guessed wrong. Well, there goes my game.
Alex:  And suddenly my win does not look so guaranteed.
Curt:  A few days ago I would have given you the win but now it's come down to a game of rock paper scissors.
Alex:  I knew it would be close. This game always is.
Tom:  And in a close game the largest set at the end usually wins.
Keith:  I can guarantee who will lose though.
Curt:  Though it may be unlikely, there are a couple of scenarios where you would win.
John:  For all the banter, Alex still holds a significant edge.
Alex:  I'm not seeing it, John. But I do think I'm 2nd.

Notes: Alex's move into the 5/3 space brings us to the endgame. The race has tightened, but Alex still holds a considerable advantage.

Comments: There's conservative and there's ridiculous.  Tom, Alex, Curt, and I stick with detectives three turns in a row.  This time Keith provides what we were all looking for -- a bandit as our tardy guest speaker.  Keith once again loses his second thief.  But this time it'll be harder to get one out on parole.

Curt gets another perfect turn with a detective -- making up almost all of the distance in the game with just a few turns.  Hard to believe Alex was once 14 spaces ahead of Curt.  It really helps to be in fifth place by just one space.  Alex's move into the 2/1 dead zone has done him in.  It took so long to get through the dead zone that his lead is down to three spaces.

Turn 22

Notes: The only thing that could stop Alex from winning at this point with an exhibit is Curt who'd get 8 spaces and win by virtue of the tie-breaker.  Curt can guarantee not losing this turn by playing a thief (to ensure his set stays biggest). The real question is whether Tom will be a wild-card in an attempt, not to win, but to get a second or third place (by trying to get five spaces).  If he's still trying to win, detective is my best move.

Comments: This turn Curt can be expected to take the move that will guarantee that he can't lose -- playing a thief.  Believe it or not, that makes Alex's best move to win a detective (giving him a four space lead over the player with the largest set and the ability to advance far enough -- five spaces on the next move -- to win without a large set or to steal a large set and win that way).  However, Alex believes he can't win and plays an exhibit (something he should have done before he entered the 2/1 dead zone).  Tom and Keith go for as many laurels as they can get.

All those exhibitors mean that Keith gets left out in the cold again -- hammering his last chance to move forward.  All show as many cards as they can.  Interestingly, with Keith and Tom limited to three cards Alex could have exhibited his bullet-proof CCEEF in order to retain a final exhibit of seven cards while still advancing the five spaces this turn safely.

Curt's thief finds himself massively enriched -- so that he'll finish with a final set of 12 cards, ultra-bullet-proofed (he could handle eight thieves without losing more than one card each out of his exhibit) far, far ahead of my eight-card set.  I should note that the point system penalizes Curt for losing his second thief by four points.  That penalty would be valid if the game had any more turns.

My detective moves me forward nicely, but without more turns it won't be enough.

Final Exhibit

Alex:  Good game, Curt.
Alex:  And with only one exhibit all game.
John:  Interesting -- since a thief was the only way Curt could guarantee that he retained the biggest set, I figured the other players would not charge ahead and end the game.
Curt:  Wow, not at all what I expected to see. This game turned out to be much closer than it appeared it would be. Good game everyone, and thanks for running the tournament John, it's been fun.
Alex:  I didn't think letting it go another turn, with everyone even closer to me, would improve my chances. I blew the game when I was back on 4/2 and didn't exhibit when you all chose detective. I just couldn't believe no one else was exhibiting when I had such a big lead. If I'd known I could have just walked across the finish line undisturbed, I'd have done it!
Tom:  Curt, you should let me keep the 1468 Mask of Shame for finishing 5th
Curt:  LOL Tom, Mask of Shame... Though with this group, there's no shame in losing at all. I hate to get all mushy but I consider you all to be among the best gamers I've ever played. It's why I want to keep coming back to WBC.
John:  Congratulations, Curt! I have to admit, the turn before Tom got off the starting block I figured that both you and Tom were too far back to have any chance. It'll make for an interesting write-up -- a major comeback victory.

Notes: I needed everyone else to play detectives or thieves on the last turn (with the exception of Keith) so that we'd play another turn after setting up a massive tie -- allowing me to steal cards and get my set ahead of Curt's.  But it's not to be...  Congratulations, Curt!  That was quite the comeback.

Comments: Curt finishes his stunning comeback with eight spaces for the largest set.  I get the four spaces for the second best set (not that it was even close).

* Explanation of chart: Space is the number of spaces advanced from the start space.  In parenthesis, the finish relative to the finish line is also shown.  Perfect turns are those with a score of 10+.  Near perfect turns (a score of 9) are shown in parenthesis.  The same is true for wasted turns (a score of 0 or less) and near wasted turns (a score of 1).

Comments: The point system I presented is intended to give the relative value of turn outcomes -- and not be a perfect predictor of who will eventually win.  That's principally because the scores also reflect the "potential" of an outcome.  Nonetheless, it's interesting to see that, without the meaningless four-point penalty for losing one's second thief on the last turn of the game, Curt would have finished at 92 -- which would accurately reflect the tight finish.

Tom and Keith's scores don't reflect their final standing partly due to their sets being so badly hammered repeatedly and their combined ability to eek out some spaces from very small sets.  Interestingly, Tom's comment above about keeping the Mask of Shame illustrates the same sense of the outcome as the points.

Wasted Moves: Usually the number of wasted turns will clearly line up inversely with the final standings.  However, in this case all of the players except Alex wasted a huge number of turns (usually en masse).  That provided some cover for those falling behind.  The other reason is that Alex's perfect and near-perfect turns were all at the beginning of the game while his wasted and near-wasted turns all came at key junctures from Turn 10 onward.

Typically, the wasted moves are directly proportional to the number of Auctionhouse visits.  While they're certainly correlated in this game, I showed a clear talent for wasting moves at the Castle while Curt made slightly better use of his time at the Auctionhouse than Tom and Keith.  One thing worth noting are the unspent checks -- players spent great efforts holding onto and collecting the big checks (24, 23, 21, and 20) and then never needed or had time to use them.

Perfect Turns: In this game, the perfect turns were more telling than the wasted turns.  Alex started off with a few near-perfect turns, but Curt finished the game on a tremendous surge -- with more perfect turns than everyone else put together.  Mostly this reflected Curt's skill in using the detective to close the one-time 14-space gap with Alex.

Ultimately, this game is a showcase for the strategy of collecting a large set and then using the detective to close the gap while the set itself powers the victory at the finish.  Curt showed the strategy's potential for making up a very large deficit with very little risk.  Curt exhibited just once during the game -- the opposite of the approach I tend to recommend.  Of course, while it worked for Curt here, my own feeling is that most successful uses of Curt's strategy will not be able to spend quite so many turns at the start of the game check-collecting and set-building and still actually manage to catch up.

Why didn't the early exhibitors win the game?  I believe the reasons are: 1) It took 15 turns to fill the jail cells -- lots of available thieves makes exhibits far more risky.  2) When the jail cells were finally filled, Curt still had both of his thieves -- keeping his flexibility and keeping exhibits risky for the leaders.  3) The starting sets were especially vulnerable to thieves -- which forces players to play more conservatively or take huge risks (and often the consequences of those risks).  4) Alex turned reluctant to exhibit after having his exhibit place third on Turn 10 and seeing Tom get robbed blind on Turn 12.  5) The four turns the advancement leaders spent mired in the 2/1 dead zone at the end of the game -- turns lagging detectives used to close the gap.

In many ways this game shows how a sprinter can jump way out as well as how a detective can make up lost ground.  Both are solid strategies that have led to many victories.  Readers should learn the benefits of each and be prepared to exploit their positions as they play future games.

This was a fun game to play and record for this series replay.  The finish was dramatic and exciting.  The competition was great and friendly.  It was everything Adel Verpflichtet ought to be (and that's saying a mouthful).  Congratulations again to Curt on his amazing comeback win!

Alex Bove comments:  The only thing I might add, in my defense I suppose, is that I changed my strategy around turn 13 because I made two assumptions that turned out not to be true:

1) I felt that my lead was so big that everyone would have to start exhibiting in order to prevent me from easily crossing the finish line.  It was obvious that my largest exhibit at the time would not even get me 2nd place if everyone exhibited, so I assumed that the other players would take advantage of the 4/2 spot and move up on me.  This lead me to think...

2) I needed to improve my set and try to work toward having the biggest set.  My plan was to acquire one or two more items while you guys exhibited and began to catch up to me.  Then I would try to steal once or twice.  If I could get even the second-longest total set at game's end, I'd probably be unbeatable.

I never thought in a million years that I could have exhibited with impunity. If I had, I would, of course, have done so. I'd have moved to the 5/3 spot and really put pressure on everyone else. But at the time (around turn 13) any exhibit I did was very vulnerable to thieves. Even one thief would break up my set. Also, in turn 13, everyone except Tom had a set of 6 or longer, same as mine. I thought it was likely that at least one, if not two, of John, Curt, and Keith would exhibit, so suddenly exhibiting did not look as good for me. This is the usual problem with the "race ahead" strategy -- eventually your exhibits are just not long enough to compete.  I did not realize that Keith was not connected.  Had I known that, I probably would have played differently.  That was probably my biggest blunder.

In any case, my nightmare scenario was something like: I exhibit, and so do John and Curt, and either Tom or Keith (or both) steals.  John and Curt beat me in the exhibit, I don't advance, and we all lose items, but now my set is broken.  Going to the auction house seemed safer.  So I suppose you're right that I played too conservatively. This was the first time I've ever been the player out ahead in a game of Adel.  I was bound to screw it up. :-)  I did learn a lot.

Tom DeMarco comments:  A great write-up, John.  You know, I originally intended to hang back, collect checks and cards, and then charge up at the finish.  But Curt was doing the same thing as me, and then Alex got so far ahead that I blinked first and started chasing, allowing Curt to get those “perfect turns.”  If Alex had only run more…  I still would have gotten 4th or 5th.

I had also had three goals in mind when I made it to the final.  1. Win the whole darn thing.  2. Beat John Pack so that I could tie or surpass him in total Adel laurels.  3. End the game having crossed the finish line, which I had done in all seven previous games.  Well, I only came close on the third goal, so I have a lot of room to improve for next year’s grueling ADV marathon.

Curt Collins comments:  All I would say is that I had a blast and look forward to next year.  I tend to think that what I was able to do was mostly because of how far behind everyone else was compared to Alex which almost forced repeated thieving to keep him from getting any further away.

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