Victory in the Pacific

Battles of Numbers
Case #2

Allied Light Carriers 0-2-7(2+)/0-2-7(4) vs.
Japanese LBA 3-4-*

This can occur early with the British against Indonesia, or late after the substantial US reinforcements arrive. Two light carriers are much better than one heavy carrier, because they are more “diluted” targets. The table shows that 1 LBA is inadequate for the critical defense of Indonesia against 2-3 British carriers, and that late-war US light carriers can be used well as a separate mass if the heavy carriers can be used elsewhere for their firepower with minimal risks.

Note: if heavy carriers are also present, they become the best targets. Follow Case 1.

Starting data:

1 LBA vs. 1 CVL: 66.67%

1 CVL vs. 1 LBA: 16.44%
2 CVL vs. 1 LBA: 31.51%
3 CVL vs. 1 LBA: 44.72%
4 CVL vs. 1 LBA: 55.92% 

Lanchester Equivalent Value LEV = sqrt(0.6667/0.1644) = 2.01 light carriers equal one LBA

 

Results:

US Retreat: 1:1, 3:2, 4:3, 5:4

 

 

LBA Retreat: 5:1+

 

 

 

CV

LBA

US Win

CV Surv

IJN Surv

LR

2

1

40.84%

1.136

0.592

0.473

3

1

73.27%

1.792

0.267

0.607

4

1

90.79%

2.802

0.092

0.758

4

2

38.16%

2.114

1.058

0.499

5

2

63.56%

2.741

0.673

0.587

6

2

84.09%

3.764

0.549

0.649

5

3

17.18%

2.582

1.978

0.423

6

3

37.92%

2.979

1.497

0.497

6

4

7.89%

3.001

2.874

0.375

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