As of September 2015, the Menzel options include the following:
3cM: A common variation of the Menzel Options is to use adjustment 3c instead of 3b:
Mr (Menzel post-Raid): Bid after the air raid and location uncertain dice:
A player is selected (randomly or by mutual agreement) to serve as the Japanese Player and makes all of its moves (patrols, LBA, NLF, and raiders) and then conducts two rounds of air raids in Indonesia and Pearl Harbor. The second player, serving as the Allied player, must agree the patrols, LBA, NLF, raiders, and targeting selections for the air raids are "reasonable." After the air raids are complete in Pearl Harbor and Indonesia, the second player then rolls the location uncertain dice, places groups accordingly, and individually withdraws all groups which rolled a "1." Then, beginning with the second player, players bid for sides. Whomever takes the Allied side then completes all of its movement (patrols and raiders) and begins the normal sequence of play with the Hawaiian pursuit decision.
Analysis of Air Raid Differences
To compare the Menzel 6-carrier air raid to the normal 8-carrier air raid, I used the vwroller and dice@finberg facilities to roll 100 air raids of each type (50 with each die server). I counted any ship bottomed as sunk. Raid methodology targeted 553s, 443s, 453s, 117s, and the 7th Air Force in that order, one carrier each provided sufficient targets were available (to maximize damage). Targets were assigned an attacking carrier based on the remaining defense factor (with the LBA treated as if its defense was 3). The summary of results appears below -- together with a normal distribution with the same mean and standard deviation.
The key take-aways are:
As of May 15th, 2022, the results of all PBEM games using the Menzel options are as follows:
|Bid||USN Wins||IJN Wins|
Prior to September 2015, the Menzel options were altered as follows:
a. Carrier Limit: 6
b. Air Raid Rounds: 2
c. IJN withdrawal is required after initial two rounds; Allied pursuit is an option.
d. 7th AF may return fire on the second round if it survives the first.
a. 5th AF may return fire on the second round if it survives the first.
Author's Comments [Pre-9/2015]: There is a fundamental problem in the game when a player can end up in a very precarious position after having been given no choices or decisions. The USN gets no meaningful decisions on T1. Then on T2, they can find themselves with no Pearl survivors and down to two LBA. Admittedly this adverse result doesn’t happen often. But an almost helpless USN on T2 is not that infrequent. And, even if it were infrequent, in any given tournament it is likely to happen to somebody or several somebody’s.
And many supported T1 CPO withdrawal/I Boat options for exactly the same reason – a potentially very negative starting position after having made zero decisions in the game.
Using the historical IJN Pearl CV raiding force will, as noted, typically give the USN 1 or 2 extra BBs to start T2. And that should get the USN out of the pure survival mode
I have records of 17 completed games. The bids have ranged from 1.5 for the IJN to .5 for the USN. Most bids have been .5 for the IJN or 0. The USN has won 14 of the 17 completed. The IJN is favored in the game in progress where the bid was 0.
I think the "Menzel" options have remarkably balanced the game - perhaps slightly overbalanced it in favor of the USN although it is too early to tell for sure.